Document Type

Paper

Publication Date

4-22-2025

Faculty Mentor

Hugo Montesinos-Yufa

Abstract

The desire of sovereignty is deeply rooted in the history of the Balkans. From the battle of Kosovo in 1389 to the Bosnian War in the 90s there have been numerous instances of redrawing lines on a map and reclaiming land. This paper revisits one of the most recent separations, the one between Serbia and Montenegro in 2006, and explores implications the split had on each economy. More specifically, using a Bayesian Structural Time Series Model, we constructed a counterfactual series to investigate how Serbia and Montenegro would have developed economically had they remained a unified state after 2006. Using data from the World Bank World Development Indicators from 1997-2023 we found that the real GDP per capita of Serbia and Montenegro was not significantly different than their projected counterfactual had they remained a unified state.

Comments

Presented as part of the Ursinus College Celebration of Student Achievement (CoSA) held April 23, 2025.

The downloadable file is a PowerPoint poster.

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