Submission Date


Document Type

Paper- Restricted to Campus Access


Business & Economics

Faculty Mentor

Jennifer VanGilder


Presented during the 24th Annual Summer Fellows Symposium, July 22, 2022 at Ursinus College.

Project Description

Japan has been experiencing one of the most rapid declines in population, approximately a two million person decrease over the past decade. Moreover, studies have shown that Japan, as an ageing society, highly depends on the working population for its pension system. This high age dependency ratio is exacerbated by the high longevity Japan experiences. Furthermore, studies have shown that the total fertility rate (TFR) is below the replacement rate (2.1 percent), and opportunities for marriage have become scarce. This problem has reached a level that municipals, which can be compared to counties in American states, are said to be in danger of going “extinct.” This implication can then be used in the creation of public policy to slow population decline. Such policies could seek to improve tourist attractions in rural regions by revitalizing cultural events (i.e., festivals), improve ICT (information and communications technology) use that would increase efficiency in production and region attractiveness, and provide more work opportunities to the native Japanese and immigrants. In an attempt to identify potential variables that impact population decline, three models are analyzed in a regression analysis, in which GDP, marriage rate, and age dependency ratio are the dependent variables. Results indicate that variables such as population growth rate, marriage rate, age dependency ratio, and average age were shown to have statistically significant relationships with the dependent variables.


Available to Ursinus community only.