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This paper analyzes econometrically the effects of direct and cross exchange rates as well as US income and Korean supply developments on the volume of Korean exports to the US. The results suggest that US demand has been the most important factor in the growth of Korean exports to the US in recent years. However, direct exchange rate effects are also important; the estimates suggest that for 1989-90, a yearly 10% real appreciation of the won against the dollar would have lowered export volume by about 10% per year relative to a baseline case. Cross exchange rate effects run counter to expectations.


This article originally published in Journal of Economic Development, Volume 16, Number 2, December 1991.