Submission Date
4-27-2015
Document Type
Paper
Department
Business & Economics
Second Department
Mathematics
Adviser
Eric Gaus
Second Adviser
Akshaye Dhawan
Committee Member
Eric Gaus
Committee Member
Akshaye Dhawan
Committee Member
Ann Karreth
Department Chair
Jennifer VanGilder
Department Chair
April Kontostathis
Project Description
The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) has long served as a foundation in macroeconomic laws of motion. However, the assumptions of REH are likely too powerful to be representative of economic actors. This research evaluates adaptive learning, a developing alternative to rational expectations, using a multi-agent macroeconomic prediction “game.” Data was gathered from a group of students, each predicting the outcome of a single economy over time. Each agent was asked to forecast output (GDP) and inflation in each period based on historic levels of output, inflation, and interest rates. These data were then analyzed under various theoretical models of adaptive learning for mathematical fit.
Recommended Citation
Martin, David, "An Experimental Analysis of Adaptive Learning in a Multi-Subject Economy" (2015). Business and Economics Honors Papers. 4.
https://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/bus_econ_hon/4
